Apple Reference & Presen…rary 8 (Internal Edition)/Apple R&P Lib Internal v8.0.iso/3-Presentations/Apple Computer Inc./Industry Competition/ROMs/Software/Mac OS⁄2 pt. 4.

Text File | 1990-06-24 | 7.4 KB | 158 lines | [TEXT/GEOL]

pt. 4

Apple confidential


THE FUTURE

The following sections discuss future releases of OS/2 and Windows and predicts
which operating environments will be most popular.  We expect Windows’
popularity to grow over the next two or three years, especially for price
sensitive markets.  OS/2 should eventually become the standard in large
business.  However, we believe MS-DOS will continue to be the most popular
operating environment for PC compatibles in all markets for the next few years.


OS/2 2.0—Designed for the 80386

Overview of OS/2 2.0.  IBM and Microsoft are working hard on a version of OS/2
that will take advantage of the 80386 processor (the current version of OS/2
was written for the 80286 processor).  We expect IBM/Microsoft to begin
shipping OS/2 2.0, or whatever it is named, in 2H90.

OS/2 2.0 is written for the 80386 processor and will only run on 80386
machines.  However, Microsoft officials have stated many times that the 32-bit
features of OS/2 will appear incrementally, and that the initial release will
not be completely rewritten to use the 386 processor’s 32-bit architecture.

Microsoft has indicated that existing OS/2 1.2 applications will run under OS/2
2.0 without change.  However, to take full advantage of OS/2 2.0, developers
will have to rework their application to some degree.  Depending on the nature
of the application, the amount of rework could be significant.

Enhancements to OS/2 2.0.    Since OS/2 2.0 has not yet been officially
announced, we cannot be certain what features it will have.  However, we expect
OS/2 2.0  provide the following advantages over OS/2 1.2:

•  Faster performance.  Supporting 32-bit registers and addressing will add
speed improvements.

•  Run multiple DOS applications.  OS/2 2.0 will have the ability to run as many
as 16 DOS applications in separate 640 KB virtual machines.  These DOS
compatibility boxes can be multitasked, and they will have protection between
them and OS/2 native applications.  This is in contrast to the current
compatibility box which can only run one DOS application at a time and if that
application crashes the whole system is frozen.

•  Better Windows compatibility.  It is speculated that Windows applications
will be able to run better under OS/2 2.0.  It is unclear what this will mean.
It could mean that Microsoft will provide tools to let developers port Windows
applications over to OS/2.  Or it could mean that Windows 3.0 applications can
run under OS/2 in a 16 MB compatibility box, rather than the current 640 KB
compatibility box.

•  Support for segments up to 4 GB.  Applications written for OS/2 1.2 can only
allocate a block of memory up to 64 KB in length.  Performance suffers when
applications deal with memory blocks that occupy multiple segments because the
program must contain special code that hops between segments.  An OS/2 2.0
application could allocate a block of memory up to 4 GB, thereby improving
performance.

•  Improved device driver support.  More device drivers should be available by
the time OS/2 2.0 ships.

Look and feel similar to Windows 3.0.  We expect that OS/2 2.0 will have a look
and feel similar to Windows 3.0 (see below).  Therefore, it will be much more
appealing visually.


Windows 3.0—A Major Step Forward

Windows 3.0 is a huge improvement over the current Windows 2.1.  We expect
Windows 3.0 to be available in 2Q90.  Competitive Analysis has written a ROM on
Windows 3.0, which describes its features in detail.  Here is a brief overview
of its enhancements.

Supports up to 16 MB of memory.  Windows 3.0 gives applications direct access
to up to 16 MB of memory when running on 286- or 386-based machines.  This will
allow much larger and more functionally rich programs to run under Windows.

Visually appealing.  Windows 3.0 has one of the most attractive interfaces on
the market.  It has a 3D effect and very good-looking color icons.

Graphical file manager.  Windows 3.0 offers a graphical File Manager which
provides direct manipulation.  The File Manager looks and works similar to the
one in OS/2 1.2.  This is a huge improvement over Windows’ current file manager
which does not provide direct manipulation; however, it is still inferior to
the Macintosh Finder.


Which Environment Will Win?

Various operating environments will probably be popular on PC compatibles in
the future.  In contrast to the past, when DOS was the standard for all PC
compatibles, we expect different environments to be popular to different
customers.

Windows’ popularity will grow for two years.  We think that Windows 3.0 will be
successful to small business, higher education, and home customers.  Windows'
popularity has grown over the past year.  And Windows 3.0 should accelerate
that growth.   We believe that, for business customers, Windows 3.0 will be the
dominant graphical operating environment through 1991.

However, in 1992, Presentation Manager should become more popular than Windows
for PC compatibles selling to large businesses as hardware prices decrease and
as new OS/2 applications appear.  OS/2 should eventually become more successful
than Windows (at least in large businesses) because it offers features—such as
multithreading, advanced IPC mechanisms, and long filenames—that are difficult,
if not impossible, to add to DOS.

OS/2 will eventually become the standard in large business.  Looking out to
1992, OS/2 will probably have its greatest penetration in large corporations.
OS/2 Extended Edition requires expensive hardware and so will probably find its
greatest acceptance in large IBM shops, since they are not too price sensitive
and since they require communications between PCs and hosts.  However, since
both Standard Edition and Extended Edition of OS/2 require high-end hardware,
they will probably not sell well to price sensitive customers (such as K-12 and
home) for the next few years.

MS-DOS will dominate for years.  MS-DOS will probably continue to be most
popular operating system for PC compatibles across all users for the next
couple of years, especially to price sensitive customers.

Following is a chart that attempts to depict the relative popularity of these
three environments in 1992:

This chart shows that we expect MS-DOS to remain the most popular PC compatible
environment in 1992.

The PC compatible market is fragmenting.  Operating environments for PC
compatibles are proliferating (DOS, various versions of Windows, OS/2 Standard
Edition, and OS/2 Extended Edition).  The PC compatible market is fragmenting,
with consumers and education running DOS applications on 8086 machines, small
businesses running Windows applications on 80286 machines, and large businesses
running OS/2 applications on 80386-based systems.

Macintosh is a stable environment.  The uncertainty about which operating
environment will become the standard has left PC compatible users and
developers confused.  They aren't sure where to commit their resources.  We
believe that some customers are delaying purchases until they know what
environment will be successful in the long run.  Apple has an opportunity to
take advantage of that confusion by promoting the relative stability of the
Macintosh platform.  The fact that Macintosh today has one operating system for
its complete product family and provides an excellent software migration path
could be used to sway these frustrated customers and developers into looking at
Macintosh systems.


Please see Mac vs. OS/2 pt.5